A significant link in the Kremlin’s plan for the accession of Belarus in the spring of 2022 is the growing wave of provocations on the border between Belarus and Poland, which have been carried out since September by the Russian special services and the Lukashenko regime.
Lidia Yermoshina, the head of the Central Election Commission of Belarus, said that Lukashenko intends to hold a referendum on the approval of a new “constitution” in the spring. He promised to write this “constitution” a year ago because of the protests and vowed to limit the powers of the president of Belarus in the document.
So, the situation with the constitution in Belarus is similar to the referendum carried out in Crimea seven years ago. The only minor difference is that Moscow held a “referendum” in Crimea in two weeks, but the government of Russia decided to set aside a whole month for discussion of the constitution of Belarus and “return to home harbor”.
If many citizens of Belarus believed in the regiments of “immortal adherents to Bandera” and the “bloody Kyiv junta” in 2014, then these Russian folk tales are no longer in demand in 2021, and Ukraine has lost the role of an aggressor who is about to seize Belarus.
The formula “invaders from Poland and Lithuania” looks better, especially if Putin presents it on November 4, the new holiday of the Russian Federation, and signs an integration decree of 28 “road maps” of the Union State with Lukashenko via video link.
The “invaders from Poland and Lithuania” steadfastly ignore the stones and sticks thrown at them by the Kremlin mercenaries from Asia and Africa, and stubbornly repair the fences these mercenaries break. Although they have all the rights and grounds to do so, they do not do so. The Kremlin is nervous, because Moscow desperately needs not one, but several such shootings to declare the threat to Belarus more thoroughly and deploy its troops in Belarus.
The Belarusians don’t even have to chant “Putin, bring in the troops!” As usual, Lukashenko will do it for them. He has long been saying with paranoidal zeal the following: “I am the Belarusian people”.
Putin does not need to strain too much over the script of the accession of Belarus by the Russian Federation. He needs to repeat the special operation “Russian Spring” according to the Crimean scenario of 2014 and hold referendums in Belarus and the Russian Federation on their merger into one state, simultaneously or with a small time gap.
In return, he agreed with Lukashenko that the Russian Federation and Belarus would receive the same status as Kadyrov and Chechnya in the Russian Federation, but with the right to send a delegation to the UN General Assembly.
This is all from foreign policy rights that will be left to Lukashenko. Modern Belarus will be almost like the Soviet Socialist Republic of Byelorussia as part of the USSR, even the flag is the same. Moreover, Lukashenko has already arranged turned Belarus into Chechnya, not without help from the Kremlin, promising Lukashenko this “brotherly assistance” in the future as well.
However, it is necessary to evoke the spirit of the “invaders from Poland and Lithuania” to launch the accession of Belarus by the Russian Federation, so Moscow has to shoot in the direction of Poland and pray that the Poles will return fire. Putin forces Poland to do so gradually…