The American Institute for War Studies (ISW) in its latest analysis estimates that the Russian offensive around Bakhmut is clearly slowing down. At the same time, Vladimir Putin’s army unexpectedly increases its numbers in the fight for Avdiivka. “Russian troops may start offensive operations in new directions” – ISW experts estimate.
Russian troops have been trying to take Bakhmut since August 2022. In recent weeks, the heaviest and bloodiest fighting has been going on there , but without a clear breakthrough on either side.
The ISW said that in recent days the Russian army made little progress south of Bakhmut, but at that time the Ukrainians carried out a successful counter-offensive on the south-western and north-western outskirts of the city.
Experts point out that the number of clashes in this section has clearly decreased in recent days. In the opinion of the British Ministry of Defence, this is related to the redeployment of Russian forces to the area of Avdiivka in the Donetsk region, about 90 kilometers away from Bakhmut.
According to American experts, the Russians want to give the fights a new impetus in this way, seeing that “the offensive has stalled at Bakhmut”.
Meanwhile, Spetsnaz colonel and former separatist commander in Donbas Igor Girkin said, commenting on the current situation at the front, that the three-month-long Russian offensive had brought nothing but minor tactical successes.
In his opinion , it is not known whether the ongoing fighting near Avdiivka will end positively for the Russians , “because the troops lack strength.”